Despite Saudi Arabia’s announced commitments to reduce fossil fuel production and consumption under Vision 2030 and its 2060 net-zero pledge, independent assessments indicate that current policies are not aligned with the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, with emissions projected to continue rising through 2035 (Climate Action Tracker, 2025). Expansion of oil and gas capacity, energy-intensive megaprojects, and hydrocarbon-dependent infrastructure all suggest that Saudi Arabia’s energy transition narrative diverges significantly from the on-the-ground reality.
Background and Policies
Saudi Arabia has announced a range of commitments to reduce fossil fuel dependence, including cutting emissions by 278 million tons annually and generating 50% of electricity from renewable sources by 2030 under Vision 2030. The Kingdom has also launched the Saudi Green Initiative, pledging to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. Nevertheless, reliance on oil and gas remains high, both for domestic energy consumption and economic stability, raising questions about the feasibility and credibility of these commitments.
Saudi Aramco remains the world’s largest oil exporter, while renewable energy accounted for only around 1% of the national energy mix in 2023. Despite increasing investment in renewables, Aramco continues to expand oil and gas production and prioritizes technological solutions like carbon capture rather than actual reductions in fossil fuel output. For example, the Jafurah shale gas project is marketed as a transitional solution to reduce domestic oil consumption, but in practice, it represents a significant expansion of unconventional gas production, reinforcing hydrocarbon dependence rather than signaling a structural shift away from fossil fuels.
Megaprojects and Infrastructure
Projects such as NEOM, The Line, and New Murabba, marketed as environmentally friendly and zero-emission initiatives, rely primarily on oil revenues and require enormous amounts of energy, materials, and water. Even desalination plants, which consume about 15% of domestic oil production, contribute significantly to emissions, highlighting the contradiction between the green narrative and structural fossil fuel dependence.
Recent cancellations or downsizing of some major projects, such as New Murabba and The Line, reflect financial pressures linked to fluctuating oil prices. However, these adjustments do not reduce hydrocarbon dependence, as investments are redirected toward lower-cost projects with shorter-term returns.
Saudi Arabia in Climate Negotiations
At COP28 and COP30, Saudi Arabia sought to delay or weaken global commitments to phase down fossil fuels, demonstrating a prioritization of continued oil and gas production over effective emission reduction measures. Tactics included delaying key decisions and promoting “flexible, selective commitments,” allowing partial engagement without full compliance.
Conclusion
Evidence shows that continued expansion of oil and gas production, investment in fossil fuel–dependent projects, and strategic negotiation behavior reveal a structural gap between the Kingdom’s energy transition rhetoric and actual practice. Projects such as Jafurah, fossil-fueled desalination infrastructure, and energy-intensive megaprojects demonstrate how climate commitments coexist with policies designed to preserve oil revenues and geopolitical influence. Saudi Arabia’s strategy appears less focused on absolute emission reductions and more on maintaining its hydrocarbon-based economic model under a lower-carbon narrative.
Recommendations
-
Strengthen sustainability and disclosure requirements for investments: Major projects and associated financial flows should undergo independent assessments of lifecycle emissions, water usage, and fossil fuel dependence before being classified or financed as sustainable.
-
Increase accountability in international climate negotiations: Post-COP reviews should formally evaluate how commitments to phase down fossil fuels were advanced or obstructed, with coordinated diplomatic pressure applied to address any attempts to dilute climate outcomes.
-
Link energy cooperation to measurable emission outcomes: Future cooperation in energy, hydrogen, and infrastructure with Saudi Arabia should be tied to transparent reporting of actual oil and gas production and methane emissions, with continued engagement dependent on demonstrated reductions rather than net-zero pledges alone.
For the full analysis and detailed recommendations, download here:
Saudi Arabia_ Green Promises, Hydrocarbon Reality
